2010 elections

GOP takes historic lead in Gallup poll

Gallup has just reported its latest "generic ballot" numbers, (where potential voters are asked which party they intend to vote for in the next election).

The results are historic, with Republicans taking their biggest lead in the sixty year history of the Gallup poll.

Latest polls do not look good for liberals

The latest polls from Gallup continue to bear bad news liberals hoping the Democrats will retain power in Congress after the upcoming elections.

Gallup's latest "generic ballot" poll, where respondents are asked which party they intend to vote for in the next election, has the Republicans up by six points, (49% to 43%).

The current six-percentage-point Republican lead ties the largest for either party so far, although Republicans have generally tied or held an advantage over Democrats since Gallup began tracking the generic ballot in March. The major exception to this prevailing pattern came July 12-25, when Democrats moved ahead with six- and four-point weekly advantages. ...

Republicans historically enjoy a turnout advantage in midterm elections, meaning that a final pre-election registered-voter margin either tied or tilting in the GOP's direction would almost certainly translate into major Republican seat gains. This possibility is underscored by Republicans' substantial advantage in enthusiasm over Democrats so far this year. ...

The chart below shows the generic poll results since March of this year:

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2010 elections: a local or national election?

In most elections, the outcome will boil down to local issues...even elections for national office.  Whether it's fixing potholes, or the guy who can go to Washington and raid the national piggy bank and send back home more of what the voters sent there to begin with, as former Democrat House Speaker Tip O'Neal once said, "all politics is local".

But not always.

As with about everything in politics (and life), there are exceptions.  Meaning, sometimes, elections will revolve around national issues and themes.  And 2010 is shaping up to be just such a year.   Why?  Because people are growing more concerned about issues like terrorism, spending and the national debt than they are about more goodies from the government.  And whereas usually people had a low opinion of Congress, but a high opinion of their own congressman, even that opinion isn't so high anymore.

Gallup's new poll takes a look at voters' issue concerns and finds the following:

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