Recent polls (and the ObamaCare dead cat bounce)

In the course of the debate over ObamaCare many administration officials and members of the Democrat leadership did their best to twist the arms of fellow Democrats in Congress in order to wrangle a majority and pass the bill.  Part of their argument in their efforts to convince those Democrats was that, once the bill became law, it would become more popular than it was at the time because, they said, Republicans and Fox News were just being temporarily successful in demonizing the bill.  Better days were ahead.

So how's that working out?  Well, according to the latest poll - not to mention one conducted by James Carville - not too good.

The most recent Democracy Corps poll, (done by James Carville and Stan Greenberg) shows NO BOUNCE whatsoever for Obama in the wake of the health care bill becoming law.  Part of their analysis states:

Health care’s passage did not produce even a point rise
in the president’s approval rating or affection for the Democratic
Congress. Virtually every key tracking measure in April’s poll has
remained unchanged, including the Democrats’ continued weakness on
handling of the economy. Both parties are equally reviled, reflected in
their lowest ratings in history, while voters want to punish those in
power – for the partisan bickering, bailing out the undeserving,
government spending, the deficit, and the endless gridlock over health
care while people struggled to survive the jobs crisis. With
independents even more conservative and Republican-leaning in this
survey, the congressional battle in 2010 looks like a dead-heat at best
– a 12-point swing in this poll from 2008.

By the way, the non-existent rise in Obama's rating is the reason for the "dead cat bounce" analogy, (as in, it hits the ground and does not bounce...).

We should note that some Democrats are claiming that they would be even worse off politically if they didn't pass ObamaCare - which of course can't be proven.  Just like that bit about how, if we wouldn't have passed the stimulus bill we would have lost even more jobs, (or even that new measure of "jobs created or saved" they started using...since unemployment kept going up).

The recent ABC News - Washington Post poll shows voters in the most anti-incumbent mood since 1994...(when Republicans won majorities in both houses on Congress in over 40 years).  As per the usual with the Post, you have to go almost half way down in the story to find the guts if it's bad news for Democrats, but here it is...

... On one of the major issues likely to be debated between
now and November -- the size and scope of the federal government --
there's a great disconnect between what people say they want and their
perceptions of Obama.

While a majority of Americans favor a smaller government with fewer
services, more than three-quarters say they see the president as
favoring a bigger government with more services....

Nearly half say the president is not doing enough to help the middle
class, a view that's held by a majority of those with annual household
incomes between $50,000 and $100,000. At the start of the general
election campaign in 2008, 66 percent expected Obama, if elected, to do
the right amount for the middle class; now, 44 percent say he has it
just right.

If the overall trends continue, the sour public mood could result in sizable House and Senate losses for Democrats in the midterm elections,
particularly if the unemployment rate sticks near double digits. The
atmosphere reflects continued economic anxiety -- about three-quarters
of Americans are worried about the direction of the economy, despite
signs that a recovery is underway -- as well as the lingering
after-effects of a convulsive political debate over the health-care
law. ...

Actually, these numbers are worse than they appear, since, as Hot Air's Ed Morissey points out, the pollster over-sampled Democrats vs. Republicans.

Gallup's latest poll shows a huge gap between the party's in term of how "enthused" their voters are about voting this coming November.  Guess who's more excited?

Does this mean "hope and change" hasn't excited Democrats?

 

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