Primary roundup: tea parties, incumbents and runoffs, oh my!

The media has referred to it as "Super Tuesday".  But considering there were only a handful of states having primaries, it wasn't really super in size.  Although it did produce some interesting results.

Here's a roundup of the big stories...

Pennsylvania: Lights out for Specter

After switching parties for the second time in his career, Specter is now a man without a country, so to speak.  So much for Obama having the influence to pull Specter over the finish line.  In fact, that's the other "big" news of the night, that Obama is now 0-4 when it comes to big endorsements (remember Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts?).

As for how this impacts the race in the fall, you’ll now have Joe Sestak, who’s not the unpopular Specter, but who is more liberal, running against conservative Pat Toomey.  Now Pennsylvania is no red state, but it’s not really a blue state either.  It’s purple.  If this were a presidential election year, it would be better for the Democrat, but it’s not.  It’s a mid-term when voters are becoming very concerned about fiscal issues, and long-time fiscal conservative Toomey should be able to effectively hang the liberal, big and expensive government label around Sestaks’ neck.

Advantage: Toomey.

PA 12: The November meme

This was a special election to replace former Democrat congressman Jack Murtha, and it has been looked at as a possible pot of tea leaves for clues about November.  In the end, Democrat Mark Critz defeated Republican Tim Burns by about 10 points.  But when it comes to "how" the Democrat won, it's important to note that he did everything he could to run as far
from Barack Obama as possible.  He’s pro-life, pro-Second Amendment and said he would have voted against ObamaCare.  Not exactly a typical liberal Democrat.

There are several problems with reading too much into this result however, since the district has a two to one Democrat registration advantage...and it has been represented by a Democrat for over thirty years.  While McCain did carry it it 2008, it was carried by John Kerry prior to that.  The other issue is that this was a special election, which makes it all about turnout, which was light.  In November it will be completely different. 

Also, there was a primary going on at the same time...meaning the each candidate running in the special election was also running for their party's nomination to be able to run for the same seat this November, (yes, it's confusing).  And both Critz and Burns won their respective primaries...which means they'll see each other again in November.  It will be interesting to watch.

Kentucky: Tea Party power

It’s funny to note the way that so many liberal pundits have discussed the Kentucky GOP Senate primary with terms like “civil war in the Republican Party”.  They’re desperate to find something reassuring to point to because otherwise they’ll have to come to grips with the fact that the Tea Party just did what the talking heads have said they couldn’t do, which is win a statewide election.  And given the fact that Rand Paul came from absolutely nowhere, and swam upstream against an establishment endorsed Republican candidate, there’s no other way to look at it other than to admit that the Tea Party movement is for real.  As a bonus, Paul has also consistently led polls in match-ups against potential Democrats for November.

The fact is that this “civil war” so many in the media refer to will make the Republican Party much, much stronger this November and beyond.

Arkansas: Blanche goes to round two

Though most of the late momentum seemed to have been with the much more liberal Lt. Governor Bill Halter, it wasn’t enough to win, or even come in first, but it was enough to send him to a runoff with incumbent Blanche Lincoln, (thanks to a third candidate in the race that pulled about 13% of the vote).

Bottom line?  They’ve got to go through an expensive and most likely nasty runoff in a few weeks, which is good news for the Republican John Boozman.  Also, if Lincoln wins, the Republican will be running against an unpopular Democrat incumbent in a year when voters are turning on incumbents, and Democrats.  If Halter wins, the Republican will be running against a much more liberal candidate – in Arkansas…in a year when all the energy is with conservatives. 

Either way, you have to put your finger on the scales for the GOP here this fall.

Connecticut:

OK, there was no election in Connecticut, but there was a game changer.  That being Democrat state Attorney General and Senate candidate Richard Blumenthal getting busted by the NY Times for saying on several occasions that he was a Vietnam veteran, when he’s not.  Which probably means he’s toast.  Remember, this is the guy running for the seat that is being vacated by the retiring Chris Dodd, who was toast.  So the question is does Blumenthal hang around…or do the Connecticut Dems play musical candidates yet again?

And, wouldn't you know it, Rasmussen is already out with a poll conducted yesterday after the news broke.  The result?  Blumenthal's lead has been cut from about 25% down to 3%.

It's going to get interesting.

 

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