The latest polls from Gallup continue to bear bad news liberals hoping the Democrats will retain power in Congress after the upcoming elections.

Gallup's latest "generic ballot" poll, where respondents are asked which party they intend to vote for in the next election, has the Republicans up by six points, (49% to 43%).

The current six-percentage-point Republican lead ties the largest for either party so far, although Republicans have generally tied or held an advantage over Democrats since Gallup began tracking the generic ballot in March. The major exception to this prevailing pattern came July 12-25, when Democrats moved ahead with six- and four-point weekly advantages. ...

Republicans historically enjoy a turnout advantage in midterm elections, meaning that a final pre-election registered-voter margin either tied or tilting in the GOP's direction would almost certainly translate into major Republican seat gains. This possibility is underscored by Republicans' substantial advantage in enthusiasm over Democrats so far this year. ...

The chart below shows the generic poll results since March of this year:

Of course most of this is tied to the fact that much of the agenda Democrats have pushed in Congress over the past year and a half has been opposed by large majorities of the American people.  But there's also the issue of Obama, which Gallup puts in negative territory by 3 points (45% approve, 48% don't) when it comes to his job approval - which probably explains why so many Democrat candidates would rather not be seen with him on the campaign trail.

These numbers get even more interesting when you compare them to past presidents just prior to their first mid-term elections, as the chart below demonstrates.

The first thing to realize about mid-term elections is that the party of the president in power almost ALWAYS loses seats.  In fact, only twice in America history has this not happened, (with Clinton in '98 and Bush in '02), and in their cases they had huge approval numbers and still only gained a half-dozen House seats.  So the real question is "how big will the loss be?" and, when you compare Obama's current approval of 45% to the chart below, you get a pretty good sense of why Democrats are running scared right now.

Keep in mind that these numbers are from Gallup which, historically speaking, usually paints a better picture for Democrats than Republicans.  By contrast, Rasmussen has Obama's numbers upside down by 11 points, (44% approve / 55% disapprove), and Republicans up over Democrats on the generic ballot by 7 points, (46% to 39%).

It's going to be an interesting fall...