GOP takes historic lead in Gallup poll

Gallup has just reported its latest "generic ballot" numbers, (where potential voters are asked which party they intend to vote for in the next election).

The results are historic, with Republicans taking their biggest lead in the sixty year history of the Gallup poll.

Gallup's latest update on 2010 congressional voting preferences finds 50% of registered voters saying they would vote for the Republican candidate in their district, and 43% for the Democratic candidate, if the elections were held today. Republicans have led in each of the past three weeks, and their current 50% vote share and seven percentage-point lead represent their best showings thus far in 2010. ...

Republicans typically turn out to vote in greater numbers than Democrats do. So their current seven-point advantage among all registered voters could represent the lower bound of the margin they could expect to win by (in the national two-party vote) if the elections were held today.

A strong Republican showing this fall would be consistent with Gallup's recent research indicating that the party of a president with approval ratings below 50% tends to suffer heavy seat losses in midterm elections. The Republicans' larger lead on the latest generic ballot coincides with a new low weekly job approval average of 44% for President Obama. ...

Of course their coverage doesn't exactly lead with the historic nature of the numbers, (you have to dig deep in the archives for that).  But here's the 2010 chart of responses.

You can see the support trend for both parties on Gallup's poll since the 1950's here.

Of course, these numbers are tied to a lot of things.  First, Obama's job performance, (his latest approval number is about 42%), public opinion of Congress, (and Democrats are the majority, so that hurts them more than Republicans), and the rising tied of resentment to big government and deficit spending.

What's more interesting about these poll numbers is that just prior to the historic 1994 elections, (where Republicans won a majority in Congress for the first time in over fifty years), both parties were essentailly tied at 46% support on the generic ballot question.

It's going to be an interesting November...

 

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