2010 elections: a local or national election?
In most elections, the outcome will boil down to local issues...even elections for national office. Whether it's fixing potholes, or the guy who can go to Washington and raid the national piggy bank and send back home more of what the voters sent there to begin with, as former Democrat House Speaker Tip O'Neal once said, "all politics is local".
But not always.
As with about everything in politics (and life), there are exceptions. Meaning, sometimes, elections will revolve around national issues and themes. And 2010 is shaping up to be just such a year. Why? Because people are growing more concerned about issues like terrorism, spending and the national debt than they are about more goodies from the government. And whereas usually people had a low opinion of Congress, but a high opinion of their own congressman, even that opinion isn't so high anymore.
Gallup's new poll takes a look at voters' issue concerns and finds the following:
By 55% to 39%, more registered voters say a candidate's stand on
national issues -- rather than his or her ability to help people at the
district level -- is what matters more to them in voting for Congress.
The percentage naming issues as the more important factor is the
highest recorded on this measure in the nearly two-decade-long Gallup
trend, although similar to that seen at points in the last two midterm
election years.Republicans are considerably more likely than Democrats to emphasize
national issues in their assessments of candidates for the U.S. House
of Representatives. Whereas a solid majority of Republican registered
voters, 63%, say a candidate's positions on national issues are
paramount to them, Democratic voters are evenly split at 46% in their
emphasis on issues vs. district performance.Notably, the majority of political independents share Republicans' greater concern for national issues. ...
That last line is what has Democrats quivering, because, as the independents go, so goes the election.

So why should this bother Democrats? First, because they're the "in" party. They run the place. Second, a "nationalized" election is usually a "change" election...meaning the "in" party will usually have problems. Third, the issues that the election is "nationalizing" around are issues that the GOP has a decided advantage on in public opinion.
Gallup concludes:
In a year when voters rank the federal budget deficit as high as terrorism
as a top concern, the implications are clear. Twenty years ago,
candidates for Congress might have ingratiated themselves with voters
by bulleting all of the federal spending projects they either had
delivered to the district, or would support if elected. Today, such
messages may be more likely to spark constituents' concerns about the
effect the spending involved could have on the national debt.
Exactly.
It's going to be an interesting year.
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